The Sinking of the Yacht Bayesian: Salvage and Interim Accident Report Findings
The luxury sailing yacht Bayesian, which tragically sank off Sicily in August 2024 with the loss of seven lives, has just been recovered. The salvage of the wreck is a major step toward understanding exactly what happened during this very serious marine casualty.
An interim accident report from the UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) has already provided significant insight into the circumstances of the sinking.
The luxury sailing yacht Bayesian, which tragically sank off Sicily in August 2024 with the loss of seven lives, has just been recovered. The salvage of the wreck is a major step toward understanding exactly what happened during this very serious marine casualty.
An interim accident report from the UK Marine Accident Investigation Branch (MAIB) has already provided significant insight into the circumstances of the sinking.
The Voyage and the Storm
Bayesian, a 55.9 m aluminium sailing yacht built in 2008, had departed Milazzo on 14 August 2024 for a short cruise around the Aeolian Islands with 12 guests and 10 crew. On 18 August, with worsening weather forecast, the skipper decided to move from Cefalù to Porticello to anchor more securely.
By the early hours of 19 August, conditions were deteriorating. Initially calm, the wind picked up quickly as a violent thunderstorm approached. Crew on watch noted wind increasing from 8 kts to 30 kts around 3:55 a.m. The yacht began dragging anchor.
Weather Radar Data (Coast Highlighted in Blue) (Storm Front Highlighted in Purple)
Shortly after 4:00 a.m., a severe squall hit with winds reportedly exceeding 70 kts. Witnesses described the Bayesian heeling suddenly to 90° in less than 15 seconds. Water flooded in rapidly over the rails and through stairwells. Despite the crew’s efforts to start engines and manoeuvre into the wind, the vessel capsized and sank in around 50 m of water about half a nautical mile south-east of Porticello.
Seven people—six guests and one crew member—lost their lives in the disaster. Survivors abandoned ship using a liferaft and were rescued by the nearby yacht Sir Robert Baden Powell.
What the Interim Report Says
The UK MAIB published an interim report because a full investigation will take longer than a year. This preliminary report, though based on limited evidence (as access to the wreck was restricted until now), offers these key points:
The storm was exceptionally violent, with a mesocyclonic thunderstorm likely involved. Analysis suggested transient winds well over hurricane force were possible in downdrafts or tornadic waterspouts.
Bayesian was in “motoring” condition at anchor, with its centreboard (swing keel) raised and no sails deployed. The yacht’s stability in this configuration was vulnerable to very high winds on the beam.
A study commissioned for the investigation concluded that in this condition, the yacht could capsize in gusts above ~63 kts—even less if wind direction and rigging interaction reduced stability.
This vulnerability was not included in the yacht’s original Stability Information Book. Neither the owner nor the crew knew about it.
The violent squall that hit Bayesian was sudden and extreme, consistent with radar and meteorological data showing a supercell storm front crossing the area.
The report also highlights heroic efforts by the crew to evacuate people, deploy liferafts, administer first aid, and signal for rescue, despite severe injuries and chaos during the capsize.
Derived wind heel data in assumed loss condition
Our Own Experience That Night
This tragedy resonates even more with us because we were delivering a Jeanneau 64 in the region at the same time. We were docked at the fuel quay in the Messina Strait overnight and were tracking the same storm cell.
We watched it pass on our onboard weather radar and monitored its approach and lightning activity using the lightning tracker app we've previously written about. Even safely tied up, it was a sobering reminder of how fast these Mediterranean summer squalls can intensify and how vital it is to keep a close watch on weather developments—especially overnight at anchor.
If you're curious about the app and how to use it in practical yacht operations, you can read our earlier post here: https://bcnyachts.com/the-logbook/lightning-tracker.
Wreck Recovery and Next Steps
Now that the wreck has been salvaged, investigators will be able to examine:
Actual loading and fuel/water state at the time of sinking
Exact position of the centreboard
Flooding and downflooding points
Escape routes and survivability issues
Liferaft readiness and deployment
This detailed inspection is expected to clarify many remaining questions. The MAIB plans to publish a full final report once all evidence is reviewed.
Conclusion
The loss of the Bayesian is a sobering reminder of the power of sudden, violent weather at sea—and the importance of understanding a vessel’s stability in all operating conditions. Our thoughts remain with the families and loved ones of those lost.
We will continue to follow the investigation and share updates as the final report is published. For the meantime you can read the full report here: https://www.gov.uk/maib-reports/foundering-of-the-yacht-bayesian-with-loss-of-7-lives
As ever, safety at sea is our top priority. We support thorough investigations like this and encourage all yacht owners, operators, and guests to be informed about vessel safety and stability, especially in challenging weather conditions. If you’d like to talk with us about your own yacht’s systems or preparation for Mediterranean cruising, don’t hesitate to get in touch.
Some content and images from the MAIB Interim Report on the foundering of the yacht Bayesian (May 2025) © Crown copyright 2025, used under the Open Government Licence v3.0.
